In IPCC AR6-WG1_SPM (August 2021), the consensus view was that :

Scenarios with very low or low GHG emissions (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6) lead within years to discernible effects on greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, and air quality, relative to high and very high GHG emissions scenarios (SSP3-7.0 or SSP5-8.5). Under these contrasting scenarios, discernible differences in trends of global surface temperature would begin to emerge from natural variability within around 20 years, and over longer time periods for many other climatic impact-drivers (high confidence).

Thus it would be unlikely to see effects of aerosol attrition short of 20 years, assuming The Great Pause continued that long (not saying it won’t). In their December 23 report, Hansen and Sato attribute the 2021 warm year to a flip from La Nina to El Nino, making 2021 the sixth warmest year on record. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2021/NovemberTUpdate+BigClimateShort.23December2021.pdf

That said, Hansen et al observe that “the 7-year period 2015–2021 is anomalously warm (Fig. 2). As discussed in our July temperature update, the excessive warming can be traced to a reduction of human-made aerosols; thus, the warming is the first payment in our Faustian aerosol bargain.” The 7-year aerosol reduction came principally from strict new rules on sulfur emissions from shipping. In any event, it does not correlate to The Great Pause. Hansen warns: “The 12-month running-mean temperature will rise with the Nino cycle in the next six months [2022], and warming will be accelerated by Earth’s largest energy imbalance in the past half century.” That won’t be caused by aerosol masking.

If you skip past his pro-nuke rant straight out of the 1950s, Hansen’s paper makes some important additional points. A slowing and possible mid-century stop of the AMOC and SMOC will transfer heat to the Southern hemisphere, which will accelerate sea level rise to as much as 10 feet this century. It will have many other knock-on effects for ocean acidity and oxygenation too. All of these may be of greater concern than aerosol dimming.

Thanks for the comment.