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The Great Pause Week 20: Coronation Part I

Life is change
How it differs from the rocks.
I’ve seen their ways too often for my liking;
New worlds to gain.
My life is to survive
And be alive
For you.
You are the crown of creation
And you’ve got no place to go.

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Salunke, et al. The SARS-CoV-2 Virion and its Proteins
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Initially, WHO, CDC, and others said not to wear masks. The WHO made two mistakes. First, they didn’t realize scaling: if the probability of infection is p, if both people wear masks it becomes p squared. For example, if p=0.50, both people wearing a mask would lower p to 0.25. Second mistake: if I reduce the viral load by half, I don’t decrease probability of infection by half — I may decrease it by 99%. That’s because the probability of infection is nonlinear — it’s an S-curve. In addition, they lied because they were worried about a mask shortage.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Mortality rates from the first quarter of 2020 left epidemiologists scratching their heads about how deadly CoV-2 is. The Case Fatality Rate was nearly 14 percent in Italy, but only 0.5 percent in Iceland. Germany and Spain were 4.5 percent, and South Korea half that. The United States mortality rate is currently 6 percent, but because testing is so poor, it could be lower. Or, because hospitalization requires insurance, which is tied to employment, it could be higher. The global average now is 6.8 percent, with a median of 4.2.

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Filopedia microscopy by Dr. Elizabeth Fischer of NIAID/NIH
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George Freeth from Wikicommons and Lynn Shelton by Stuart Isett NY Times
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Emergency Planetary Technician and Climate Science Wonk — using naturopathic remedies to recover the Holocene without geoengineering or ponzinomics.

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